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文法国国民议会选举进行首轮投票，“或将迎来二战后首个极右翼政府”
法国国民议会选举进行首轮投票，“或将迎来二战后首个极右翼政府”
法国新一届国民议会选举首轮投票已于当地时间6月30日开始。路透社认为，此次选举或将使法国迎来自二战以来的“首个极右翼政府”，“可能是欧盟核心区域的一次重大变革”。英国广播公司（BBC）称，这场选举“或将创造历史”——极右翼比以往任何时候都更接近权力。
民调数据显示，在支持率方面，玛丽娜·勒庞领导的极右翼联盟政党国民联盟持续领先，匆忙组建的左翼联盟新人民阵线位居第二，而马克龙的中间派联盟“在一起”落后，居于第三。
此前由于法国执政党复兴党在6月初的欧洲议会选举中惨败，马克龙于6月9日宣布解散国民议会，提前举行国民议会选举，被外界视为一场政治“豪赌”。
当地时间2024年6月29日，在加拿大蒙特利尔举行的第一轮法国议会选举中，法国民众在皇家中心投票。（视觉中国）
本次法国国民议会选举两轮投票分别定在6月30日和7月7日举行，相关竞选活动已于6月28日午夜结束。
首轮投票于当地时间6月30日上午8时（北京时间14时）开启。其中，小城镇投票将于当地时间6月30日18时（北京时间24时）结束，大城市投票将于当地时间6月30日20时（北京时间7月1日2时）结束，届时将公布首轮投票的出口民调结果和对第二轮投票的席位预测。至于海外属地及旅居外国的选民已于前一天投票。
不过，根据法国的选举制度，很难预测577个国民议会席位的确切分布情况，最终结果要等到7月7日第二轮投票结束后才能获悉。
勒庞当地时间6月26日曾信心满满地表示，她领导的国民联盟“将赢得绝对多数”（即达到289个席位），并预测该党主席、28岁的若尔当·巴尔代拉将出任法国总理。
路透社称，若国民联盟真的赢得绝对多数席位，法国外交可能会进入一个“前所未有的动荡时期”。
现任总统马克龙此前表示，他将履职到2027年任期结束。因此若巴尔代拉出任法国总理，该国将出现左右阵营共同争夺话语权的局面。
路透社指出，尽管战后法国出现过三次“左右共治”，但没有一次是由观念完全相左的阵营共同领导国家。
巴尔代拉此前表示，他将在国际问题上挑战马克龙。报道称，法国可能会从欧盟的“支柱”变为欧盟的“眼中钉”——巴尔代拉提出要削减法国每年对欧盟预算的贡献，在欧盟委员会重要职位上与布鲁塞尔出现分歧，并推翻马克龙对欧盟加强团结、实现“可信的欧洲防御体系”的呼吁。
当地时间2024年6月23日，法国巴黎，投票站的选举海报上印着极右翼政党“国民联盟”玛丽娜·勒庞与若尔当·巴尔代拉的照片。（视觉中国）
此外，路透社指出，如果国民联盟赢得此次国民议会选举，法国在俄乌冲突中的立场也将存在不确定性。美国“政客新闻网”欧洲版和路透社称勒庞有“亲俄”历史，但勒庞此前表示，她在俄乌冲突中支持乌克兰。
路透社援引最新民调结果称，国民联盟以33%-36%的支持率领先，左翼联盟新人民阵线以28%-31%的支持率位居第二，马克龙的中间派联盟以20%-23%的支持率落后。
法国尼斯大学和巴黎综合理工学院的政治学教授文森特·马蒂尼（Vincent Martigny）表示，由于选举的方式，很难预测民意调查结果将如何转化为国民议会的席位。
据法国24新闻台介绍，如果候选人在其选区首轮投票中赢得绝对多数（超过半数的）选票，且其票数超过选区登记选民数的25%，则直接当选，但这种情况很少见。大多数选区将需要进行第二轮投票，所有在首轮投票中获得所在选区12.5%登记选民支持的候选人将参加第二轮选举，票数多者当选。如果没有候选人满足12.5%的条件，则首轮投票得票数排名前两位的候选人进入第二轮选举。
BBC提到，在法国4900万登记选民中，超过260万人登记通过代理人投票，表明这场关键选举的投票率将很高。
据总台环球资讯广播6月30日报道，中国现代国际关系研究院研究员刘明礼表示，民生、移民、对欧政策等问题是目前法国各党派关注的焦点议题。作为极右翼政党，国民联盟目前的政策主张并不是很全面系统，只是抓住选民关注的几个问题来表达对现政府的不同观点，因此今后法国的经济、社会、外交政策走向，还面临很大的不确定性。
The first round of voting in the French National Assembly elections may usher in the first far right government after World War II
The first round of voting for the new French National Assembly elections began on June 30th local time. Reuters believes that this election may usher in France's "first far right government" since World War II, "possibly a major change in the core region of the European Union.". The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) stated that this election "may create history" - the far right is closer to power than ever before.
Poll data shows that in terms of support, the far right coalition party National Alliance led by Marina Le Pen continues to lead, while the hastily formed left-wing coalition New People's Front ranks second, while Macron's centrist coalition "together" lags behind and ranks third.
Previously, due to the disastrous defeat of the French ruling party, the Renaissance Party, in the European Parliament elections in early June, Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly on June 9th and held early elections, which was seen by the outside world as a political gamble.
On June 29, 2024 local time, in the first round of French parliamentary elections held in Montreal, Canada, French citizens voted in the Royal Centre. (Visual China)
On June 29, 2024 local time, in the first round of French parliamentary elections held in Montreal, Canada, French citizens voted in the Royal Centre. (Visual China)
The two rounds of voting for the French National Assembly elections are scheduled to be held on June 30th and July 7th respectively, and the related election activities have ended at midnight on June 28th.
The first round of voting will start at 8:00 am local time on June 30th (14:00 Beijing time). Among them, the small town voting will end at 18:00 local time on June 30th (24:00 Beijing time), and the big city voting will end at 20:00 local time on June 30th (2:00 Beijing time on July 1st). At that time, the export poll results of the first round of voting and the seat prediction for the second round of voting will be announced. As for overseas territories and voters residing abroad, they voted the day before.
However, according to France's electoral system, it is difficult to predict the exact distribution of 577 seats in the National Assembly, and the final result will not be known until the second round of voting ends on July 7th.
On June 26th local time, Le Pen confidently stated that her National League would "win an absolute majority" (reaching 289 seats) and predicted that the party's chairman, 28 year old Jordane Baldella, would become the Prime Minister of France.
Reuters reported that if the National League really wins an absolute majority of seats, French diplomacy may enter an "unprecedented period of turmoil.".
Current president Macron previously stated that he will serve until the end of his term in 2027. Therefore, if Baldella becomes the Prime Minister of France, there will be a situation where the left and right camps compete for the right to speak.
Reuters pointed out that although there have been three instances of "left and right co governance" in post-war France, none of them have been led by camps with completely different ideologies.
Baldella previously stated that he will challenge Macron on international issues. According to reports, France may shift from being a "pillar" of the European Union to a "thorn in the eye" of the EU - with Baldella proposing to reduce France's annual contribution to the EU budget, disagreeing with Brussels on important positions in the European Commission, and overturning Macron's call for the EU to strengthen unity and achieve a "credible European defense system.".
On June 23, 2024, local time, in Paris, France, election posters at polling stations featured photos of the far right political parties "National League" Marina Le Pen and Jordon Baldella. (Visual China)
On June 23, 2024, local time, in Paris, France, election posters at polling stations featured photos of the far right political parties "National League" Marina Le Pen and Jordon Baldella. (Visual China)
In addition, Reuters pointed out that if the National League wins the National Assembly election, France's position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will also be uncertain. The European edition of the US Politician News Network and Reuters said Le Pen had a history of "pro Russia", but Le Pen previously said that she supported Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Reuters cited the latest poll results, stating that the National League leads with a 33% -36% approval rating, the Left Alliance New People's Front ranks second with a 28% -31% approval rating, and Macron's centrist alliance lags behind with a 20% -23% approval rating.
Vincent Martiny, a political science professor at the University of Nice and the Polytechnic Institute in Paris, said that due to the election method, it is difficult to predict how the poll results will translate into seats in the National Assembly.
According to France's 24 News Channel, if a candidate wins an absolute majority (more than half) of the votes in the first round of voting in their constituency, and their number of votes exceeds 25% of the registered voters in the constituency, they are directly elected, but this situation is rare. Most constituencies will require a second round of voting, and all candidates who receive 12.5% of the registered voters in their constituency in the first round of voting will participate in the second round of elections. The candidate with the highest number of votes will be elected. If no candidate meets the requirement of 12.5%, the top two candidates in the first round of voting will enter the second round of election.
The BBC mentioned that out of 49 million registered voters in France, over 2.6 million registered to vote through proxy, indicating a high voter turnout for this crucial election.
According to a report by global News Broadcasting on June 30th, Liu Mingli, a researcher at the China Institute of modern International Relations, stated that issues such as people's livelihoods, immigration, and policies towards Europe are currently the focus of attention for various political parties in France. As a far right political party, the current policy proposals of the National League are not very comprehensive and systematic. They only focus on a few issues that voters are concerned about to express different views on the current government. Therefore, the future direction of France's economic, social, and foreign policies will still face great uncertainty.
句子成分分析：(划分说明
) 提示：框中标识可点击
Reuters believes | that this election may usher in France's "first far rightgovernment" [since World War Ⅱ], ["possibly] a major change [in the coreregion (of the European Union)]."
句子语法结构详解：
* believes 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* usher 为谓语。
* change 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* may 为情态动词。France's 为名词所有格。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| usher...in | 开创, 开启, 迎来 |
| World War Ⅱ | 第二次世界大战 |
| the European Union | 欧洲联盟 |
Vocabulary:
| believe [bi'li:v] | vt. | 1) 相信，认为真实 2) 认为(……有可能), 把（某事）当真 |
| this [θis] | a. | 1) 这(个) 2) 今,本 |
| election [i'lekʃәn] | n. | 1) 选举 2) 当选 |
| France [frɑ:ns] | n. | 法国 |
| first [fә:st] | a. | 1) 第一的 2) 最初的; 最先的 |
| far [fɑ:] | a. | 1) 远的，遥远的 2) 较远的 |
| right [rait] | a. | 1) 正确的，真正的，真实的 2) 右边的 |
| government ['gʌvәnmәnt] | n. | 1) 政府 2) 政体 |
| since [sins] | prep. | 自(从)...以来, 从...以后 |
| possibly ['pɔsәbli] | ad. | 1) 可能；或许 2) （强调惊奇、恼怒等） |
| major ['meidʒә] | n. | 1) 主修课程，专业课 2) 少校 |
| change [tʃeindʒ] | vi. | 1) 改变，变化 2) 变换，改换 |
| core [kɔ:] | a. | 1) 最重要的，主要的，基本的 2) 核心（信念，价值，原则）的 |
| region ['ri:dʒәn] | n. | 1) （通常界限不明的）地区，区域，地方 2) 行政区 |
句子成分分析：(划分说明) 提示：框中标识可点击
(提示: 读句时出现中断。(原因))
Poll data shows that [in terms (of support)],
the far right coalition party (National Alliance led [by Marina Le Pen])continues to lead,
while the hastily formed left-wing coalition (New People's Front ranks second),
while Macron's centrist coalition "together" lags behind and ranks third.
句子语法结构详解：
(led 为 lead 的过去式。)
* shows 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* national 开头为定语从句，引导词 that 被省略。
* led 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* continues 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* to lead 为不定式，作宾语。
* 第1个 while 为连词，引导状语从句。
* formed 为过去分词作定语
* new 开头为定语从句，引导词 that 被省略。
* second 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* while 为连词，引导状语从句。
* lags 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* 第2个 ranks 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* that 为指示代词。People's, Macron's 为名词所有格。the 为定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| in terms of... | 1) 从...方面来看, 就...而言 2) 依据..., 按照... |
| lag behind | 缓慢移动，发展缓慢，滞后，落后 |
Vocabulary:
| poll [pәul] | n. | 1) 投票数 2) 民意测验，民意调查 |
| data ['deitә] | n. | 数据；资料，材料 |
| show [ʃәu] | vt. | 1) 显示出，流露出（情感、表情等） 2) 表明，显示, 证明 |
| that [ðæt] | pron | 1) 那(个) 2) (在句中作关系代词, 连接从句) |
| support [sә'pɔ:t] | n. | 1) 支持，帮助 2) 支援，救助 |
| far [fɑ:] | ad. | 1) 远 2) （指程度）远远，很，非常 |
| right [rait] | a. | 1) 正确的，真正的，真实的 2) 右边的 |
| coalition [,kәuә'liʃәn] | n. | 1) （两党或多党）联合政府 2) （尤指多个政治团体的）联合体，联盟 |
| party ['pɑ:ti] | n. | 1) 聚会，宴会，联欢会，派对 2) （或 Party）政党，党派 |
| national ['næʃәnәl] | a. | 1) 国家的，民族的，全国的 2) 国有的，国立的，国营的 |
| alliance [ә'laiәns] | n. | 1) （国家、政党等的）结盟，联盟 2) 结盟团体，联盟 |
| lead [li:d] | vt. | 1) 带路，引导，带领 2) 处于领先地位,最擅长于 |
| vt. | 1) 带路，引导，带领 2) 处于领先地位,最擅长于 | |
| continue [kәn'tinju:] | vt. | 1) （停顿后）继续，再开始 2) 持续做，持续某种状态，不断发生 |
| while [hwail] | conj. | 1) 当...的时候:, 在...期间; 2) 而, 然而(表示对比或相反) 3) 虽然 |
| hastily ['heistili] | ad. | 匆忙地, 急速地, 急躁地 |
| form [fɔ:m] | vt. | 1) 形成 2) 成立，建立，创立 |
| left-wing | a. | 左翼的，左的 |
| new [nju:] | a. | 1) 新的，刚出现的，新近推出的 2) （the new）新东西，新事物 |
| people ['pi:pl] | n. | 1) 人，人们，大家 2) 国民，人民，臣民，群众 |
| front [frʌnt] | a. | 前面的，前部的，正面的 |
| rank [ræŋk] | n. | 1) （尤指较高的）地位，级别 2) 军衔，军阶，警衔 |
| vt. | 1) 把……分等级，属于（某等级） 2) 排列，使排成行 | |
| second ['sekәnd] | vt. | 支持，赞成（主意、建议等） |
| macron | n. | (语言)长音符；平调符 |
| together [tә'geðә] | ad. | 1) 一起, 共同 2) 以使接触（或相结合）；到一起 |
| and [ænd] | conj. | 1) 和, 与, 同, 并 2) 然后，接着 |
| third [θә:d] | num | 第三 |
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