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货币政策二季度例会：关于房地产政策、降准降息、汇率等专家这样解读

财联社6月28日讯（记者 王宏）今日消息，央行货币政策委员会2024年第二季度例会已在北京召开。对经济形势判断上，此次例会与二季度相同。房地产政策方面，例会继续强调了推动已出台政策落地见效，专家认为，预计下半年房地产政策或仍延续渐进优化模式。

货币政策取向上，此次例会表述也与上季度相同。但在展望后续政策上，专家认为，三季度降准降息窗口有望开启。此外，央行三季度可能在MLF利率不动情况下，直接较大幅度引导LPR报价下调。而考虑到银行净息差表现，下半年监管或将引导存款利率较大幅度下调。人民币汇率方面，专家认为，后续动能关键还在于房地产业的企稳回暖。

房地产政策下半年或继续渐进优化

会议指出，我国经济运行延续回升向好态势，高质量发展扎实推进，但仍面临有效需求不足、社会预期偏弱等挑战。

东方金诚宏观分析师认为，此次例会对经济形势的判断与一季度例会相同。“虽然整体延续回升向好势头，但以房地产投资下滑、居民消费偏弱为代表，二季度宏观经济‘供强需弱’特征明显，并突出体现在物价水平上。背后是在楼市持续低迷、疫情疤痕效应等影响下，市场预期偏弱。”

“本次会议释放出稳健货币政策偏积极取向”，光大银行金融市场部研究员周茂华表示，考虑到发达经济体继续受困于粘性通胀，降息决策谨慎，国内货币政策需要内外平衡。首要是加大已出台政策组合拳实施力度，充分释放政策红利。

周茂华认为，当前我国低物价环境，国际收支保持基本平衡，经济结构持续优化，常规政策工具实施空间仍大。

房地产政策方面，此次会议强调“着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展”。

东方金诚宏观分析师表示，这主要是指5月17日房地产新政密集发布后，接下来的重点是有效落实。高频数据显示，6月楼市尚未出现明显改善，或与政策效应释放需要时间有关，也不排除以下调居民房贷利率为核心，后期房地产支持政策继续加码的可能。预计下半年房地产政策仍将延续渐进优化模式。

三季度有望降准降息，存款利率或迎下调

货币政策取向方面，例会继续强调“更加注重做好逆周期调节”，“保持社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配”，“促进物价温和回升”，“推动企业融资和居民信贷成本稳中有降”，提法与上季度完全相同。

后续政策展望上，多位业内专家均表示，降息降准窗口有望在三季度开启，货币政策将在稳增长方向上继续用力。

降准方面，近期银行体系资金面处于充裕状态，东方金诚宏观分析师认为，三季度有可能再实施一次降准，来激励银行等金融机构通过债务置换等方式积极参与地方债务风险化解。降息方面，考虑下半年物价回升幅度有限，降息的作用不可替代，而且降息迫切性高于降准。

周茂华则认为，考虑内外形势，预计后续优先考虑降准、结构性工具，并引导金融机构挖机利率市场化改革潜力，保持流动性合理充裕，合理降低投资和消费融资成本，促进有效需求加快复苏。

会议指出，完善市场化利率形成和传导机制，充实货币政策工具箱，发挥央行政策利率引导作用，释放贷款市场报价利率改革和存款利率市场化调整机制效能，推动企业融资和居民信贷成本稳中有降。

结合近期央行“淡化其他货币政策工具利率的政策利率色彩”和“改革完善LPR”的表述，以及银行净息差明显低于“警戒水平”的状况，东方金诚宏观分析师认为，不排除三季度MLF操作利率不动，央行在下调7天期逆回购操作利率的同时，直接较大幅度引导LPR报价下调的可能。此外，下半年监管或将引导存款利率较大幅度下调。

人民币汇率后续看房地产企稳

近期人民币对美元汇率波动下行。截至6月28日，境外离岸市场人民币兑美元汇率徘徊在7.2973附近，盘中连续三天跌破7.3整数关口。

关于人民币汇率，此次会议提到，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，综合施策、校正背离、稳定预期，坚决对顺周期行为予以纠偏，防止形成单边一致性预期并自我强化，坚决防范汇率超调风险。

东方金诚宏观分析师认为，6月以来美元指数走高，导致人民币对美元被动贬值。但近期无论从中美利差还是基本面变化看，国内因素对人民币汇率影响都不大。“短期内除继续通过中间价发挥调控作用外，出台其他稳汇措施可能性不大。下一步决定人民币内在动能的关键在于国内房地产业何时企稳回暖”。

Second quarter meeting of monetary policy: interpretation by experts on real estate policy, reserve requirement and interest rate cuts, exchange rates, etc

Caixin News Agency, June 28th (Reporter Wang Hong) Today, the second quarter meeting of the central Bank's Monetary policy Committee for 2024 has been held in Beijing. In terms of judging the economic situation, this meeting is the same as the second quarter. In terms of real estate policies, the meeting continued to emphasize the promotion of the implementation and effectiveness of policies that have been introduced. Experts believe that it is expected that the real estate policies will continue to adopt a gradual optimization model in the second half of the year.

In terms of monetary policy orientation, the statement at this meeting is also the same as last quarter. But in terms of looking ahead to future policies, experts believe that the window for reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in the third quarter is expected to open. In addition, the central bank may directly and significantly guide the LPR quotation to be lowered in the third quarter when the MLF interest rate remains unchanged. Considering the performance of bank net interest margin, regulatory measures may guide a significant reduction in deposit interest rates in the second half of the year. In terms of the RMB exchange rate, experts believe that the key driving force in the future lies in the stabilization and recovery of the real estate industry.

Real estate policies may continue to be gradually optimized in the second half of the year

The meeting pointed out that China's economic operation continues to rebound and is steadily advancing towards high-quality development, but still faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations.

Macro analysts from Dongfang Jincheng believe that this meeting's assessment of the economic situation is the same as the first quarter meeting. "Although the overall trend of recovery continues to be positive, represented by a decline in real estate investment and weak consumer spending, the macroeconomic characteristics of 'strong supply and weak demand' in the second quarter are obvious, and are prominently reflected in the price level. Behind this is the weak market expectations due to the sustained downturn in the real estate market and the scar effect of the epidemic."

"This meeting released the positive orientation of prudent monetary policy", said Zhou Maohua, a researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank. Considering that developed economies continue to be trapped in sticky inflation, the decision to cut interest rates is prudent, and domestic monetary policy needs to be balanced internally and externally. The first priority is to increase the implementation of the combination of policies that have been introduced, and fully unleash the policy dividends.

Zhou Maohua believes that in the current low price environment in China, the international balance of payments remains basically balanced, the economic structure continues to optimize, and there is still room for the implementation of conventional policy tools.

In terms of real estate policies, this meeting emphasized "focusing on promoting the implementation and effectiveness of financial policy measures that have been introduced, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.".

Macro analysts from Dongfang Jincheng stated that this mainly refers to the focus on effective implementation after the intensive release of new real estate policies on May 17th. High frequency data shows that there has not been a significant improvement in the real estate market in June, which may be related to the time required for policy effects to be released. It is also not ruled out that the adjustment of residential mortgage rates as the core may continue to increase the support policies for the real estate market in the future. It is expected that the real estate policy will continue the gradual optimization model in the second half of the year.

Expected to lower reserve requirements and interest rates in the third quarter, and deposit interest rates may face a downward trend

In terms of monetary policy orientation, the regular meeting continued to emphasize "paying more attention to doing a good job of countercyclical adjustment", "maintaining the scale of social financing and money supply in line with expected economic growth and price levels", "promoting a moderate rebound in prices", "promoting stable and moderate reduction in financing costs for enterprises and residents", with the same wording as last quarter.

In terms of future policy outlook, several industry experts have stated that the window for interest rate and reserve requirement cuts is expected to open in the third quarter, and monetary policy will continue to exert efforts in stabilizing growth.

In terms of reserve requirement reduction, the banking system has been in a state of abundant funds recently. Macro analysts from Dongfang Jincheng believe that another reserve requirement reduction may be implemented in the third quarter to encourage banks and other financial institutions to actively participate in local debt risk resolution through debt swaps and other means. In terms of interest rate cuts, considering the limited rebound in prices in the second half of the year, the role of interest rate cuts is irreplaceable, and the urgency of interest rate cuts is higher than that of reserve requirement cuts.

Zhou Maohua believes that, considering the internal and external situation, it is expected that priority will be given to reserve requirement reduction and structural tools in the future, and financial institutions will be guided to tap into the potential of interest rate marketization reform, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, reasonably reduce investment and consumer financing costs, and promote the accelerated recovery of effective demand.

The meeting pointed out that we should improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, enrich the monetary policy toolbox, give full play to the guiding role of the central bank's policy interest rates, release the effectiveness of the loan market quotation interest rate reform and deposit interest rate marketization adjustment mechanism, and promote stable and reduced financing costs for enterprises and residents.

Based on the recent statements made by the central bank to "downplay the policy interest rate color of other monetary policy tools" and "reform and improve LPR", as well as the fact that the net interest rate spread of banks is significantly lower than the "warning level", macro analysts from Dongfang Jincheng believe that it is not ruled out that the MLF operating rate will remain unchanged in the third quarter, and the central bank may directly and significantly guide the LPR quotation to decrease while lowering the 7-day reverse repo operating rate. In addition, regulation may guide a significant reduction in deposit interest rates in the second half of the year.

The follow-up analysis of the RMB exchange rate and the stabilization of the real estate industry

Recently, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has fluctuated downwards. As of June 28th, the RMB/USD exchange rate in overseas offshore markets hovered around 7.2973, falling below the 7.3 integer mark for three consecutive days during trading.

Regarding the RMB exchange rate, this meeting mentioned maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, comprehensively implementing policies, correcting deviations, and stabilizing expectations, resolutely correcting pro cyclical behavior, preventing the formation of unilateral consensus expectations and self strengthening, and resolutely preventing the risk of exchange rate overshoot.

Macro analysts at Dongfang Jincheng believe that the rise of the US dollar index since June has led to a passive depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar. However, in recent times, both from the perspective of the US China interest rate spread and fundamental changes, domestic factors have had little impact on the RMB exchange rate. In the short term, it is unlikely to introduce other measures to stabilize foreign exchange, except for continuing to play a regulatory role through the middle price. The key to determining the intrinsic momentum of the RMB lies in when the domestic real estate industry will stabilize and recover.

句子成分分析：(划分说明)  提示：框中标识可点击

Macro analysts (from Dongfang Jincheng) stated | that this mainly refers to the focus [on effective implementation] [after the intensive release (of new realestate policies)] [on May 17th].

句子语法结构详解：

* stated 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* refers 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* this 为指示代词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子成分分析：(划分说明)  提示：框中标识可点击

[However], [in recent times], both (from the perspective (of the US China interestrate)) spread || and fundamental changes, || domestic factors have had littleimpact [on the RMB exchange rate]

句子语法结构详解：

* spread 为谓语。
* and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* changes 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* domestic 开头为陈述句。
* had 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* us 为人称代词宾格。both 为不定代词。have 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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